Title: Decision Quality Under Time Pressure: Evidence from a Large Chess Database

Speaker: Jiang Ming

Time: Nov 18, 2021 (Thursday） 11：30am - 1:00pm

Host: Lei Zhen

Address: Room 311 HongYuan Building

Online Link：https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/bbz6Bee3EkOT (Tencent Meeting ID: 262982699)

Abstract:

Time pressure has been shown to affect judgment and decision-making quality in the literature. The behavioral economics literature studying this problem however mostly relies on laboratory experiments, which are lacking in scale and real-world relevance. Using the online chess server lichess’s open database, we analyze millions of rated chess games with different formats of time control with each move time-stamped. Using chess engine to evaluate each move’s quality, we find that the probability of blundering increases as the available time decreases, even when players spend more time on each move. Players with higher Elo rating and titled masters, while generally make fewer mistakes, are not immune to the effect of time pressure. Further, using an audio-visual alarm on the platform that goes off when the time is running low as the threshold for regression discontinuity design, we establish causal relationship between time pressure and decision quality.

Speaker Introduction:

Jiang Ming is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He received his PhD from the University of Michigan School of Information Technology. His research focuses on the use of empirical research, laboratory experiments and field experiments to explore issues in behavioral economics, development economics, matching and market design, and other related fields. His research has been published in internationally recognized journals such as PNAS, Management Science, Games and Economic Behavior, and Experimental Economics.