主题：Excusing Myopia：The Role of Risk

主讲人：邹文博 - 南开大学

        https://sites.google.com/view/wenbo-zou/home

时间：2021年07月20日（星期二）下午4:00-5:30

地点：西南财经大学柳林校区弘远楼311室

主讲内容:

未来比现在更不确定。现有的文献表明，人们行为不耐烦（或有现在的偏见），至少部分是因为他们对未来风险的厌恶。虽然这种行为可以被标准的经济模型完全合理化，但本文展示了一种新的机制，即个人以风险为借口推迟痛苦，加快回报。在一个实验室实验中，参与者评估了今天的风险回报和未来日期的风险回报，包括努力-供给和货币结果。当估值决策不涉及跨时空的权衡时，他们对现在的风险和未来的风险有类似的反应。相比之下，当估值采取跨时决策的形式时，没有耐心的（或有现时偏见的）个人在努力-提供（货币结果）方面更厌恶现时（未来）风险，而在努力-提供（货币结果）方面更厌恶未来（现时）风险。这种对风险的偏向性反应使这些人更经常地选择未来的努力-提供和现在的货币回报，这与借口驱动的风险反应是一致的。

    The future is more uncertainty than the present. Existing literature has shown that people act impatiently (or with present bias) at least partly because of their aversion to future risk. While this behavior could be fully rationalized by standard economic models, the current paper demonstrates a novel mechanism that individuals use risk as an excuse to postpone pains and expedite rewards. In a laboratory experiment, participants evaluate risky payoffs for today and risky payoffs for a future date, both in effort-provision and monetary outcomes. When the valuation decisions involve no intertemporal tradeoff, they respond similarly to present risk and future risk. By contrast, when the valuation takes the form of intertemporal decision- making, impatient (or present-biased) individuals act more averse to present (future) risk in effort-provision (monetary outcomes), and less averse to future (present) risk in effort- provision (monetary outcomes). Such biased responses to risk make these individuals choose future effort-provision and present monetary reward more often, consistent with excuse-driven responses to risk.